Keywords
Ruska federacija
vojna v Ukrajini
energetska varnost
cenovna kapica
naftni trg
How to Cite
Abstract
Članek analizira vpliv zahodnih energetskih sankcij na fiskalno zmožnost Ruske federacije za financiranje vojne v Ukrajini (2023–2025). Na podlagi analize proračunskih podatkov, preusmeritve naftnih tokov in logističnih pri- lagoditev avtor ugotavlja, da sankcije niso ustavile ruskega naftnega izvoza, so pa bistveno zmanjšale proračunske prihodke. Soočen s strukturnim razhajanjem med rastočimi vojaškimi izdatki in omejeno naftno rento, je Kremelj sprejel strateško odločitev za prioritiziranje vojaških ciljev ne glede na politične in gospodarske posledice. Rezultati kažejo, da prehod v vojno ekonomijo, podprt z davčnimi reformami in krčenjem civilnih investicij, omogoča kratko- ročno financiranje vojaških operacij, dolgoročno pa vodi v gospodarsko nazadovanje.
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